An article said that the United Kingdom population had recently grown at its fastest rate since the 1960s. Both UK-born and non-UK-born women had contributed to the consistent rise in fertility rates between 2001 and 2006. In the year to mid-2006, the estimated population aged 85 and over increased by 6 per cent to 1.2 million: By 2031 it was projected that this number would more than double to 2.9 million.
Source: Karen Dunnell, 'The changing demographic picture of the UK – National Statistician's annual article on the population', Population Trends 130, Winter 2007, Office for National Statistics, Palgrave Macmillan (01256 329242)
Links: Article | ONS press release | BBC report | Telegraph report
Date: 2007-Dec
The statistics watchdog said that the 2011 Census should be the final one of its kind, and that planning for the longer term should start immediately. It said that high-level discussions about what would replace, or at least supplement, the Census in the future should be taken forward in parallel to work relating to 2011. It said that it had been impressed by the cost savings, and quality improvements, made in several Scandinavian countries that relied mainly on registers of population, households, and businesses; and also by the advantages, but lesser cost savings, of moving to a short Census form supported by a large continuous survey, as in the United States.
Source: Counting on Success: The 2011 Census – Managing the risks, Statistics Commission (020 7273 8008)
Links: Report | StatComm press release | FT report
Date: 2007-Nov
An article examined the accuracy of United Kingdom population projections in comparison to those of other European countries. During the previous 30 years the UK had somewhat larger forecast errors for fertility, and smaller errors for mortality, while migration forecasts were about as accurate as the European average.
Source: Nico Keilman, 'UK national population projections in perspective: how successful compared to those in other European countries?', Population Trends 129, Autumn 2007, Office for National Statistics, Palgrave Macmillan (01256 329242)
Links: Article | ONS press release
Date: 2007-Oct
The population of the United Kingdom was set to increase by 4.4 million to 65 million by 2016, according to new projections. 2.1 million of the overall rise could be put down to immigration alone. Further projections said the population would reach 71 million by 2031, and 77 million in 2051.
Source: Press release 23 October 2007, Office for National Statistics (0845 601 3034)
Links: ONS press release | OPT press release | Telegraph report | BBC report | Guardian report | FT report
Date: 2007-Oct
The Office for National Statistics published the long-term assumptions of future fertility, mortality, and net migration on which the 2006-based population projections would be calculated. The key assumptions for the United Kingdom were: an average family size of 1.84 children per woman (an increase of 0.10 compared with the 2004-based projections); an expectation of life at birth in 2031 of 82.7 years for males and 86.2 years for females (compared with 81.4 years and 85.0 years respectively in the 2004-based projections); a long-term assumption for net immigration of 190,000 each year (compared with 145,000 per year in the previous projections).
Source: '2006-based national population projections: underlying long-term assumptions', Population Trends 129, Autumn 2007, Office for National Statistics, Palgrave Macmillan (01256 329242)
Links: Article | ONS press release | MWUK press release | Telegraph report | Guardian report | BBC report
Date: 2007-Sep
The population of the United Kingdom in mid-2006 was 60,587,000 – an increase of 349,000 (0.6 per cent) on mid-2005. In the five years since 2001, the population had increased by an average 0.5 per cent per year.
Source: Press release 22 August 2007, Office for National Statistics (0845 601 3034)
Links: ONS press release | Guardian report
Date: 2007-Aug
A report said that families should restrict themselves to having a maximum of two children, in order to stabilize the effect on the environment of a rapidly growing population.
Source: John Guillebaud, Youthquake: Population, fertility and environment in the 21st century, Optimum Population Trust (07976 370221)
Links: Report | OPT press release | Guardian report
Date: 2007-Jul
An article examined the accuracy of the official national population projections made for the United Kingdom over the previous fifty years. The total population had been projected reasonably accurately: but this was largely a chance result of compensating errors.
Source: Chris Shaw, 'Fifty years of United Kingdom national population projections: how accurate have they been?', Population Trends 128, Summer 2007, Office for National Statistics, Palgrave Macmillan (01256 329242)
Links: Article
Date: 2007-Jun
A report examined policy and practice evidence on existing and projected demographic trends in Scotland. It considered the challenges arising from these demographic changes; some possible responses; and a sketch of a constructive scenario for the following 25-40 years.
Source: Linda Boyes, Andrew Harris and Jim McCormick, Constructive Responses for a Changing Population, Scottish Council Foundation (0131 225 4709)
Date: 2007-May
An article described the creation of the Office for National Statistics 2001 output area classification, placing each 2001 Census output area into one of seven clusters based on the socio-economic attributes of the residents of each area.
Source: Dan Vickers and Phil Rees, 'Creating the UK National Statistics 2001 output area classification', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, Volume 170 Issue 2
Links: Abstract
Date: 2007-Apr
An article examined some of the problems and uncertainties arising from the use of Census data in epidemiological studies, and some of the approaches that could be used to address them.
Source: David Briggs, Daniela Fecht and Kees de Hoogh, 'Census data issues for epidemiology and health risk assessment: experiences from the Small Area Health Statistics Unit', Journal of the Royal Statistical Society: Series A, Volume 170 Issue 2
Links: Abstract
Date: 2007-Apr
The estimated population of Scotland on 30 June 2006 was 5,116,900, a rise of 22,100 on the previous year and an increase of 52,700 since mid-2001.
Source: Mid-2006 Population Estimates Scotland, General Register Office for Scotland (0131 314 4243)
Links: Report | GROS press release
Date: 2007-Apr
An article used data from the 1991 Census to simulate the effects of the disclosure method proposed for use in adjusting the 2001 Census interaction datasets. The results suggested differing impacts on the frequencies of certain counts as data at the level of adjustment were aggregated, with varying implications for the analytical measures of migration used in comparative research.
Source: Oliver Duke-Williams and John Stillwell, 'Investigating the potential effects of small cell adjustment on interaction data from the 2001 Census', Environment and Planning A, Volume 39 Number 5
Links: Abstract
Date: 2007-Apr
An article outlined a coverage assessment and adjustment strategy for the 2011 United Kingdom Census.
Source: Owen Abbott, '2011 Census coverage assessment and adjustment strategy', Population Trends 127, Spring 2007, Office for National Statistics, Palgrave Macmillan (01256 329242)
Links: Article | ONS press release
Date: 2007-Apr
The number of households in Scotland increased by 20,000 (just under 1 per cent) in 2006, to 2.3 million.
Source: Household Estimates for Scotland, 2006, General Register Office for Scotland (0131 314 4243)
Links: Report | GROS press release
Date: 2007-Mar
Updated projections showed an annual rate of household growth in England in the period 2004-2026 of 223,000, compared with 209,000 in the 2003 base projection (2003-2026). A rise in the number of single households accounted for around 70 per cent of household growth.
Source: Press release 16 March 2007, Department for Communities and Local Government (020 7944 3000)
Links: DCLG press release | Shelter press release | MigrationwatchUK briefing | Regeneration & Renewal report | Telegraph report
Date: 2007-Mar
The statistics watchdog examined progress in planning for the 2011 Census. It highlighted issues on which more might be done by government to help assure the success of the Census.
Source: Preparing for the 2011 Census: Interim Report, Statistics Commission (020 7273 8008)
Links: Report
Date: 2007-Feb